Module 1 – Prediction Markets 101:
Get a rock‑solid foundation so you’re never confused about what you’re actually trading.
You’ll learn what prediction markets are, how they’re structured, and why they exist. You’ll see how Kalshi and Polymarket operate in practice, from the account level to individual markets. We’ll walk through contract types, yes/no pricing, and payout mechanics, so you understand exactly how each cent of price translates to risk and reward. You’ll also compare prediction markets to sportsbooks and traditional trading, so you can see where they’re similar, where they’re very different, and what that means for your approach.
Module 2 – Reading Market Prices:
Learn how to “read” a market like a language.
You’ll get comfortable with implied probability—what a price actually says about the market’s expected outcome. You’ll see why a contract at 65 cents means ~65% implied chance, and where that mapping can mislead you if you ignore fees or structure. Then you’ll start spotting mispricings: situations where the market price doesn’t match reality. You’ll also learn how to verify a suspected edge before you trade, so you’re not just trading against your own wishful thinking.
Module 3 – Finding Real Edges:
Move from “this looks wrong” to “I can prove this is mispriced.”
You’ll learn how to build your own probability estimates using news, primary sources, historical data, and context. Instead of trusting vibes on social media, you’ll use a simple, structured way to estimate odds. You’ll see patterns in markets where the crowd is likely to be wrong—complex rules, niche topics, emotionally loaded events—and learn to recognize when there’s no trade at all, even if the market looks exciting. Knowing when to skip is one of the most profitable skills you can develop.
Module 4 – Beginner‑Friendly Strategies:
Build confidence with strategies that don’t require you to be an expert yet.
You’ll start with value betting: identifying situations where your probability estimate is higher (or lower) than the market’s and acting accordingly. You’ll see how trend and momentum trading can work in prediction markets, and when it’s a trap. You’ll explore simple event‑driven trades (like reacting to scheduled announcements), and learn contrarian setups—when fading the crowd makes sense and when it’s just ego. We’ll close by highlighting which strategies are best for beginners, so you know exactly where to start.
Module 5 – Advanced Strategy Types:
Once your basics are solid, you’ll level up into more complex edges.
You’ll learn how to spot arbitrage opportunities when markets or contracts are misaligned, and when the friction or size makes them not worth it. We’ll cover calendar trading (playing time and timing across related events) and market making concepts, including why thin markets can look attractive but carry hidden risks. You’ll also see how news reaction trading works in fast‑moving markets, and why copy trading—simply following visible whales or popular accounts—is often more dangerous than it looks.
Module 6 – Risk Management:
This is where you stop thinking like a gambler and start thinking like a professional.
You’ll learn position sizing basics—how big each trade should be relative to your bankroll. We’ll walk through risk per trade, simple bankroll management rules, and introduce fractional Kelly concepts so you can scale your bets intelligently, not emotionally. You’ll learn how to survive losing streaks without tilting or doubling down, and why bankroll management matters more than being right once. A single great trade can’t save you from bad risk habits—but good risk habits can save you from many wrong trades.
Module 7 – Trade Setup and Execution:
Turn good ideas into clean execution.
You’ll learn how to enter trades cleanly: where to place orders, how to think about slippage and liquidity, and when to sit on your hands. You’ll explore when to buy early versus wait, balancing early prices against information risk. You’ll create exit plans before entering, so you’re not making decisions in the heat of the moment. You’ll also learn how to track profit and loss accurately and build a repeatable execution routine you can follow every time you trade.
Module 8 – Research Workflow:
Your edge lives in your process.
You’ll build a repeatable research process from scratch: what to check, in what order, and how deep to go for different trade sizes. You’ll define which sources to check before trading (news, primary data, rules, historical patterns). You’ll also create a watchlist of recurring event types where you’re likely to find edge, learn how to track your assumptions, and distinguish weak setups (thin evidence, high emotion) from strong ones (clear thesis, solid data, clean structure).
Module 9 – Trade Journal and Review:
This is where you turn data into improvement.
You’ll learn exactly how to log every trade properly: what fields to track and why they matter. We’ll walk through the key fields—market, thesis, entry price, exit price, result, and lesson—and show you what to write in each. You’ll discover how to review your accuracy over time, identify which categories or setups you excel in, and which ones consistently drain your bankroll. This lets you double down on your strengths and scale back your weaknesses systematically.
Module 10 – Platform‑Specific Tactics:
Nuances matter. This module covers them.
You’ll get a clear overview of Kalshi basics and market structure and Polymarket basics and market structure, so you understand how each platform handles fees, resolution, and contracts. You’ll examine liquidity differences and how they affect order placement, plus order placement habits that reduce slippage and bad fills. Finally, you’ll see the most common platform mistakes traders make and how to avoid them.
Module 11 – Common Mistakes:
Avoid the traps that crush most traders.
You’ll walk through the most common ways people lose money in prediction markets: chasing headlines too late, trading thin or illiquid markets, overpaying for certainty, holding positions without a plan, and risking too much on one idea. For each mistake, you’ll see concrete examples and replacement rules—what to do instead, so you don’t learn these lessons the most expensive way possible.
Module 12 – Building a Repeatable System:
Turn individual trades into a long‑term process.
You’ll learn how to connect everything in the course into a single, coherent system: from research to execution to review. You’ll move from “random trades” to a trading process you can run each week. You’ll work on developing your own edge, not just copying ideas, and see how to scale responsibly once you’re consistently executing well. Crucially, you’ll learn when to sit out—because “no trade” is often the best trade you can make.
Apply everything in real‑world context.
You’ll watch live case studies of real markets, seeing exactly how different strategies apply to recent events. You’ll get strategy walkthroughs showing how a trade was researched, sized, executed, and reviewed, plus a fully worked real‑world example from start to finish. You’ll also get spreadsheet templates for probability tracking, beginner vs advanced trading checklists, and a “First 10 Trades” starter plan so you know exactly how to begin without overexposing yourself.
